Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible
today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the
Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the
Desert Southwest.
...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas...
The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the
Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move
north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface
temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate
instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg
range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability
this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to
40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a
tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The
tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the
eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas.
...Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja
California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm
Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will
increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and
southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This
combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift
associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered
thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a
mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the
evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer
shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can
develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.
..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TVs6WV
