Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today, but some gusty winds
could accompany thunderstorms from parts of Kansas to the eastern
half of Texas.
...KS to TX...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the period
this morning across parts of KS into central/eastern OK and
north/central TX. This activity will persist eastward through the
day, supported by low-level warm advection ahead of a surface low
and cold front. Forecast guidance has trended weaker with any signal
for severe potential. Ongoing convection and cloud cover downstream
across the warm sector will limit heating. Furthermore, lapse rates
will remain poor. Large-scale ascent will increasingly lift
northeast toward the Midwest in tandem with a weakening midlevel
trough. As this occurs, midlevel flow will weaken through afternoon
over the central/southern Plains. Stronger instability is expected
with southward extent toward South TX. However, vertical shear will
be very weak and lapse rates poor, precluding organized updrafts.
While occasional gusty winds could accompany thunderstorm activity
today, overall severe potential appears low.
..Leitman/Weinman.. 10/01/2026
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