Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...AND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes remain possible the next hour or two across
mainly north-central/northeast KS. Additional strong to severe
thunderstorms posing mainly a risk for strong gusts are possible
across OK/TX through tonight.
...KS/NE/IA...
A tornado risk may persist for another hour or two across
north-central KS and vicinity. Storms ongoing across this area will
increasingly encounter a less favorable environment with time and
northeast extent as a midlevel dry slot continues to spread
east/northeast across the area. Additionally, cooler temperatures
near/along a weak warm front near the KS/NE border and loss of
daytime heating will result in increasing low-level inhibition.
Furthermore, the strengthening low-level, which has likely recently
contributed to at least a couple of tornado reports will continue to
shift east and become misaligned with the nearly stationary surface
low. As a result, the tornado risk should decrease through the
remainder of the evening. Nevertheless, a couple of strong storms
could still produce gusty winds into the nighttime hours. Reference
MCD 2341 for more details.
...OK/TX...
Convection is expected to continue increasing over the next few
hours across the southern Plains along a surface trough. A modestly
unstable airmass will persist into the nighttime hours. Sufficient
effective shear magnitudes will support at least transient updraft
organization through the evening. Strong gusts will be the main
hazard with convection into late evening/early overnight. Vertically
veering wind profiles through 2-3 km also will support increased
effective SRH within the moist airmass. A brief spin-up could occur
with stronger/better organized convection.
..Leitman.. 10/01/2026
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