Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 071300Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are
expected over portions of North Dakota as well as southeast South
Dakota into northeast Nebraska this afternoon into evening. A
broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential
exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi
Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central
Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.
...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley...
Early-morning satellite imagery depicts a deep upper trough over the
western CONUS. A trio of notable shortwave troughs are embedded
within this larger troughing, with the lead wave currently
progressing through eastern MT. Expectation is for this lead wave to
continue northeastward into the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces.
Surface low attendant to this lead shortwave is currently over
east-central MT. This low is also forecast to progress northeastward
just ahead of its parent shortwave for much of the day, before then
occluding over southern Saskatchewan this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from central MT into
western ND in the vicinity of this surface low, supported by a
combination of warm advection around the low and large-scale ascent
attendant to the shortwave trough. Warm-air advection is also
supporting additional thunderstorms from the NE Panhandle into
central SD. All of this activity is expected to gradually to shift
northeastward this morning in tandem with the progression of the
shortwave and its stronger low/mid-level southerly flow. Steep
mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of
effective bulk shear could support occasional storm organization
with an associated risk for isolated large hail.
Renewed thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in
several areas in the wake of the morning storms. One area is along a
dryline-like surface trough that is forecast to extend from the
occluding low over southern Saskatchewan to another low over western
SD. Strong low-level convergence is likely along this boundary, with
dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 60s just east of the
boundary. Some convective inhibition may linger, and overall storm
coverage will likely remain isolated to widely scattered as a
result. However, any storms that develop should become supercells
capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and a brief
tornado.
Another area is over portions of south-central and southeast SD into
northeast CO, from the vicinity of the secondary surface low of
western SD southwest along a pre-frontal trough. Some limited
convective inhibition may remain over this region as well, likely
keeping the overall storm coverage isolated to widely scattered.
Even so, kinematic profiles do support the potential for supercells
with any persistent deep convective, particularly over southeast SD.
Here, the proximity to the low-level jet results in considerable
veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL, with effective SRH of 200-300
m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes of 40-45 kt. Primary
severe risk with any supercells is large to very large hail,
although the low-level veering will support some tornado risk as
well.
...Central Gulf Coast...
A hot and very moist air mass is forecast this afternoon ahead of a
weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE
increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent and vertical shear
will remain weak; however, the degree of instability and high
moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable
of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.
..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/07/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TVMj9P
