Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are
expected over portions of northwest and central North Dakota and
southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon into
evening. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. A
broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential
exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi
Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central
Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous short-wave trough will pivot from the northern Rockies
through the northern High Plains with an associated strengthening of
the mid/upper-level wind field forecast across the northern Plains
into the upper MS Valley. A low-level jet (LLJ) will also be
sustained over the northern and central Plains into upper MS Valley
ahead of a surface cold front advancing through the northern Plains
and central High Plains.
...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...
Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z
Monday from eastern MT into the Dakotas within a zone of forcing for
ascent preceding a lead, mid-level disturbance and coincident with
the exit region of the LLJ. The presence of steep mid-level lapse
rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of effective bulk
shear will be supportive of some storm organization with an
associated risk for isolated large hail occurrences through the
morning hours as that convective regime shifts east across the
Dakotas.
On the periphery of more persistent cloudiness associated with the
morning storms, stronger insolation coupled with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s F and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are
expected to yield a moderately unstable air mass by mid to late
afternoon with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500+ J/kg and a weakening cap.
Surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly
likely at that time, aided by increasing height falls attending the
primary short-wave trough.
The 00Z models indicate one potentially favored location for storm
development over portions of south-central and southeast SD into
northeast CO, from the vicinity of a secondary surface low southwest
along a pre-frontal trough. RAP-based hodographs over southeast SD
indicate considerable veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL with
effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes
of 40-45 kt, owing to the proximity of the LLJ. Accompanying
thermodynamic profiles suggest modest low-level lapse rates with
some residual capping. However, given surface-based storm initiation
and sustenance, supercells would be likely with an associated large
hail and tornado threat.
A hotter and more well-mixed boundary layer is expected with
southwestward extent ahead of the pre-frontal trough where
high-based storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail appear
possible.
Surface-based storms also appear possible ahead of an occluding
surface low and trailing cold front from northwest into central ND.
While the boundary layer may remain relatively cool from the
early-day storms, cooling mid-level temperatures will effectively
steepen lapse rates, yielding sufficient instability amidst 40-50 kt
of deep-layer layer. As such, supercells appear possible with an
attendant risk for large hail.
...Central Gulf Coast...
A hot and very moist air mass is forecast Monday afternoon ahead of
a weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE
increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will remain weak as
will vertical shear; however, the degree of instability and high
moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable
of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.
..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/07/2026
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