Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026
Valid 301300Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts/some hail and a brief
tornado are expected across the southern Plains this afternoon into
tonight including portions of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma.
The potential for a few tornadoes and localized wind damage will
also exist across Kansas and possibly far southeast Nebraska.
...Central/southern Plains...
A mid/upper-level low will move from the southern Rockies toward the
central High Plains through tonight. A surface low initially over
the southern High Plains is forecast to move only slowly eastward
through tonight. A warm front extending northeast of the surface low
may move slowly northward through the day, though persistent clouds
and precipitation may hinder its advance.
A rather strong low-level jet (50+ kt diurnally) is forecast to
slowly shift northeastward across parts of central/eastern Kansas
into western Missouri and southeast Nebraska/southwest Iowa by
evening. This will help to maintain strong wind profiles in the
vicinity of the central Plains effective warm front. Destabilization
near the warm front may remain weak due to limited diurnal heating
and weak mid-level lapse rates.
While uncertainties remain regarding the disposition of persistent
early day precipitation and cloud cover, will defer to the
anticipated strength of 0-1km/0-3km AGL winds and related
supercell-conducive profiles. Have upgraded portions of
central/eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska with the notion
that multiple tornadoes are a viable possibility, even if
destabilization remains muted later today.
Farther south, the coverage and persistence of early-day convection
across the southern Plains remains somewhat uncertain, though there
may be a tendency for convection to weaken and/or shift northward by
early afternoon. The greatest confidence in substantial diurnal
destabilization is from southwest Oklahoma into northwest Texas and
the Edwards Plateau, where heating of a very moist airmass will
result in MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1500 J/kg, despite poor
mid-level lapse rates. Renewed storm development is expected from
late afternoon into the evening, in advance of the approaching
mid/upper-level low. Moderate mid-level flow will provide sufficient
deep-layer shear for storm organization.
While supercells will be possible initially, generally
front-parallel flow and increasing storm coverage will likely lead
to more of a linear mode with time. Strong to severe gusts appear to
be the most likely hazard, though isolated hail also appears
possible across southwest Texas, where somewhat stronger
destabilization may occur. Also, while low-level flow will be weaker
compared to areas farther north, some increase in effective SRH is
expected during the evening, which could support a localized tornado
threat within the very moist environment. An isolated severe threat
could persist into parts of central Texas/Oklahoma overnight, though
diminishing buoyancy with time and eastward extent should result in
an eventual weakening trend.
Elsewhere, a few strong to locally severe lower-topped storms could
occur across the south-central High Plains pending sufficient
destabilization.
..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/30/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TVjkWV
