Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM INTO WEST TX...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly a tornado or
two could occur tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into
west Texas.
...Southern/eastern NM into west TX...
A mid/upper-level cyclone is moving across the Desert Southwest this
evening. In advance of this system, the remnants of Tropical Cyclone
Polo are moving northeastward across northern Mexico. Increasing
large-scale ascent, combined with low-level moisture transport from
the southeast and midlevel moisture downstream of the Polo remnants,
is driving an increase in storm coverage from the TX Panhandle into
eastern NM this evening. While midlevel lapse rates are poor due to
the influence of the tropical system, the rich moisture is
supporting MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, which will help to sustain
widespread convection through the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear will persist downstream of the approaching
mid/upper-level low/trough, while increasing low-level mass response
will result in strengthening effective SRH with time tonight.
Occasional supercell structures have been noted from southeast NM
into the TX Panhandle, with additional rotating storms possible
through the evening as storm coverage continues to increase.
The thermodynamic environment is not favorable for an organized
severe-wind threat, while low-level shear/SRH may only be supportive
of a brief tornado threat, given the marginal buoyancy and a
tendency toward more linear structures with time. As a result, the
severe threat may tend to be limited in magnitude, though localized
strong to severe gusts and a brief tornado or two will be possible
with any persistent organized storm structures through late tonight.
See MCDs 2335 and 2336 for more information regarding the short-term
threat across this region.
..Dean.. 09/30/2026
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