Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the
early evening.
...Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over KS/OK will continue generally
eastward through the larger-scale ridge and slowly weaken by
tonight. Scattered convection and widespread clouds persist this
morning from southwest OK into KS in the primary zone of ascent
preceding the midlevel trough, though clearing from the west is
expected this afternoon. Surface heating west of the clouds and
within an axis of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s) along a weak surface trough could support
additional, surface-based thunderstorms this afternoon across
western OK into northwest TX. Relatively deep mixing/inverted-V
profiles appear to favor isolated strong outflow gusts as the
primary hazard late this afternoon/evening. Vertical shear will be
on the lower margins for supercells with marginally severe hail.
Elsewhere, occasional/mainly elevated thunderstorms will be possible
through tonight from northeast OK northward to IA. Other isolated
lightning flashes will remain possible through the day near the
southeast New England coast with elevated convection atop a
low-level warm advection regime.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 09/26/2026
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