Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated hail and strong outflow winds may accompany thunderstorms
across portions of the southern Plains late this afternoon into the
early evening.
...Western OK into northwest TX...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
central and southern High Plains moving northeast while a
smaller-scale upper jet moves across the TX Panhandle into OK. A
lee trough will extend southward through the High Plains and act to
maintain southerly low-level flow and a fetch of modest moisture
(surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms ongoing this morning will likely dissipate with
additional storm activity expected to develop around 21-23 UTC.
Sufficiently steepened low-level lapse rates by mid afternoon and
the erosion of MLCINH will likely result in widely scattered to
scattered storms developing from south-central KS through western OK
and parts of west/northwest TX. Adequately strong deep-layer shear
for storm organization will aid in a few of the stronger
thunderstorms to be capable of an isolated threat for large hail and
severe gusts (mainly 22z-02z).
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions for severe weather are expected to
prevail.
..Smith/Bentley.. 09/26/2026
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