Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon from parts
of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians. An
isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts is forecast over parts
of the Texas South Plains later today.
...Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians...
Radar mosaic this morning shows a parade of three MCVs moving
eastward over the OH Valley into the central Appalachians primarily
to the immediate cool side of a cold front. This front will aid in
focusing storm development today over the northern portion of the
Marginal Risk where slightly stronger flow fields are expected
(i.e., KY-WV-VA). By afternoon, the front is forecast to be
positioned from northern Mississippi northeastward to western
Virginia. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F from the lower
Mississippi Valley northeastward into WV. As moderate buoyancy
develops by early to mid afternoon, scattered to numerous single and
multicell thunderstorms are expected to form. A few of the stronger
downdrafts will likely yield a threat for strong to locally severe
gusts (50 to 60 mph) and pockets of wind damage before weakening by
the early evening.
...TX South Plains...
A mid to upper-level ridge will gradually shift eastward over the
southern High Plains during the period as an upper trough over
eastern OK this morning continues eastward and becomes increasingly
displaced from west TX. A frontal zone and residual outflow will
become draped over the TX South Plains during the afternoon. Model
guidance indicates at least scattered storms developing within a
moist plume extending west-northwestward into the Caprock/South
Plains vicinity during peak heating. A couple of stronger
thunderstorms may yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts
before dissipating during the evening.
..Smith/Mead.. 09/21/2026
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