Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this
afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the southern and central
Appalachians.
...Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians...
A cold front will advance southeastward across the southern and
eastern U.S. today. By afternoon, the front is forecast to be
positioned from northern Mississippi northeastward to western
Virginia. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s F from the lower
Mississippi Valley northeastward into West Virginia. As surface
temperature warm, an axis of moderate instability will develop ahead
of the front from central Mississippi northeastward into western
North Carolina, where MLCAPE should peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg
range. Low-level convergence will increase along the front during
the day, which will be favorable for scattered to numerous
thunderstorm development. Although deep-layer shear will be weak
along and near the instability axis, low-level lapse rates will
become steep in the afternoon. The thermodynamic environment should
be favorable for isolated severe wind gusts with single cells or
disorganized multicells. The threat should be largely diurnal but
may persist into the early evening in areas that destabilize the
most.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 09/21/2026
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