Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated
hail remain possible tonight across parts of the south-central
Plains.
...South-central Plains and vicinity...
Isolated strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from
southwest KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle, with another
persistent storm cluster across eastern KS. Earlier storm
development across central/northwest OK was driven by very strong
heating in the vicinity of an outflow boundary, within a regime of
generally weak deep-layer flow/shear. This activity is expected to
generally weaken through late evening, due to the onset of nocturnal
cooling/stabilization. However, isolated hail and strong to severe
gusts will remain possible with any remaining storms through
mid/late evening.
Another surface boundary is located across southern KS, with moist
low-level easterly flow in place between this boundary and the
outflow boundary across OK. Short-term CAM guidance continues to
depict persistence of strong to locally severe storms through late
evening within this regime from southern KS into far northern OK and
perhaps southwest MO, potentially aided by a modest strengthening of
the nocturnal low-level jet. While this convection may tend to
become increasingly elevated with time, favorable lapse rates and
buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear (as depicted on the 00Z DDC
sounding) will support vigorous cells and perhaps a loosely
organized cluster, with potential for strong to severe gusts and
isolated hail.
See MCDs 2290 and 2291 for more information regarding the short-term
threats in this region.
..Dean.. 09/13/2026
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