Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds may occur across
parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks this afternoon and
evening.
...Central/Southern Plains to the Ozarks...
Scattered mainly elevated thunderstorms continue at midday across
the region, including the strongest/occasionally-severe storms
across southeast Nebraska into northeast Kansas that are occurring
near/just behind a southeastward-moving cold front. Some severe hail
will remain possible as these storms continue southeastward on the
edge of the primary instability reservoir.
This front, augmented by early day outflows, will otherwise serve as
a focus for more robust thunderstorm development this
afternoon/evening as well. With a rather moist low-level airmass
forecast to be present along/south of the front, current
expectations are for a narrow zone of moderate to strong instability
(MLCAPE 2000-3500 J/kg) to develop this afternoon from the eastern
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma. Weak low-level winds will veer to west-northwesterly and
strengthen some with height through mid/upper levels, supporting
around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. While
large-scale ascent will remain fairly weak/nebulous across the
southern/central Plains, most guidance shows at least isolated
robust thunderstorm development along the front by 21-23Z as
convective temperatures are reached.
Any sustained supercells would pose a threat for large to very large
hail, with steep mid-level lapse rates and ample instability in the
hail-growth zone supporting potential for 2+ inch
diameter hail on an isolated basis. Somewhat higher-based convection
is expected from the eastern Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles into
southwest/south-central Kansas and northern Oklahoma, where a very
well-mixed boundary layer with steep low/mid-level lapse rates
will promote an environment that supports severe-caliber downdraft
winds. Some gusts could exceed 75 mph. A degree of storm clustering
could occur into this evening.
...Upper Ohio Valley...
A regional pocket of relatively cloud-free skies at midday will
contribute to filtered diurnal heating and moderate instability
across the region. Thunderstorms will further increase in coverage
and intensity through the afternoon, aided by forcing for ascent
associated with an approaching weak mid-level shortwave trough.
While mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, sufficient deep-layer
shear coupled with modest steepening of low-level lapse rates
suggest some risk for occasional damaging winds with any loosely
organized clusters/line segments that develop.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 09/12/2026
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