Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts will
remain possible through late evening from the upper Ohio Valley into
the southern Plains.
...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening along and ahead of
a cold front from north-central PA into central OH within a moist
air mass with the 00Z Pittsburgh sounding indicating MLCAPE of
around 1000 J/kg. Moreover, the corresponding wind profile exhibited
relatively strong low-level and deep-layer shear with effective SRH
of around 250 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear of around 40 kt. So,
while lapse rates and resultant instability are expected to weaken
with the loss of daytime heating, the kinematic environment will
remain supportive of transient supercell and bowing structures
capable of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado for the
next couple of hours.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
A thunderstorm complex ongoing southeast of Kansas City this evening
is located to the north of the synoptic front that stretches from
central MO through far southeast KS and northwest OK into the TX
Panhandle. Some cold pool organization is present per KEAX base
velocity data, with recent reports of wind damage and wind gusts up
to 59 mph. The air mass ahead of the storms has been slightly
modified by convective outflow but still remains sufficiently
buoyant to sustain the ongoing storms with a continued risk for
isolated severe wind gusts through the remainder of the evening.
Over the southern Plains, widely scattered thunderstorms continue
this evening along and in the immediate wake of the front. The air
mass ahead of the front remains hot with a deep, well-mixed boundary
layer, which will remain supportive of locally severe wind gusts for
the next hour or two.
..Mead.. 09/10/2026
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