Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
NEW YORK....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the central Plains to the Ohio Valley today.
...OH/PA/NY...
A fast-moving shortwave trough now over WI/IL will track eastward
today across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the primary
baroclinic currently extends from Lake Erie into OH/IN and will move
eastward and be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Strong heating and dewpoints in the 70s across much of OH and
western PA will result in moderate CAPE values and steep low-level
lapse rates. Sufficient deep-layer shear will promote organized
storms with some bowing structures expected, capable of locally
damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread into western
NY/northwest PA by early evening before weakening.
...IN/IL/MO...
The storms that form over OH will zipper southwestward along the
boundary into a pocket of ample CAPE/moisture over parts of southern
IN/IL into southern MO. Winds aloft in this area will be weaker,
with less overall organization of storms. Nevertheless, a few
storms may occasionally produce damaging wind gusts.
...TX/OK/KS...
Widely scattered slow-moving afternoon thunderstorms will pose a
risk of gusty/damaging winds in a hot/humid surface air mass.
..Hart/Guyer.. 09/09/2026
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