Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening over parts of Great Plains and Ozarks.
Isolated severe gusts will also be possible today from the
Mid-Atlantic northward into New York.
...Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas/Southwest Missouri/Far
Northwest Arkansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward toward the mid Mississippi
Valley today. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located from far northern Oklahoma east-northeastward into
south-central Missouri, along which dewpoints will be in the 60s and
lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate
instability will develop along and near the front, with the RAP
forecasting MLCAPE to increase into the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
During the afternoon, low-level convergence will become focused near
the front with scattered thunderstorm development taking place from
southern Kansas into southwest Missouri. These storms will move
southeastward into northern Oklahoma and far northwestern Arkansas
by the early to mid evening.
In addition to the moderate instability, RAP forecast soundings
early this evening near the front have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40
knot range with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment
will support a severe threat. A mixed mode is expected with
supercells and multicell line segments both possible. Supercells
will be capable of severe wind gusts and hail, while the stronger
line segments will be associated with primarily a wind-damage
threat. The severe threat could persist into the mid to late
evening.
...Mid-Atlantic/New York/Far Western New England...
Mid-level flow will be southwesterly over the Northeast today. At
the surface, a trough will be located from the Atlantic Coastal
Plains of Virginia north-northeastward into the southeastern New
York. As surface temperatures warm today, thunderstorms will develop
in the foothills of the Appalachians, moving east-northeastward into
the lower elevations and toward the surface trough. Surface
dewpoints near the trough will be in the lower to mid 70s F, which
will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon.
MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, which
combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support an isolated
wind-damage threat.
...Western Nebraska/Southern South Dakota...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the
north-central U.S. today. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will set up from western Nebraska into far southern South
Dakota, where dewpoints will be in the 60s F. Near this axis, model
forecasts show a pocket of moderate instability this afternoon with
MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Although large-scale
ascent will be weak, any cell that can initiate near the instability
axis could be capable of producing isolated severe gusts.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/06/2026
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