Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible from this afternoon into the overnight across parts of the
mid Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in
parts of the southern High Plains, and in southeastern Arizona.
...Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward today across the
north-central U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front will be
located from the central Plains northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Along and to the south of the front, surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop to the south of the
front. Large-scale ascent associated with the trough will support
scattered to numerous thunderstorm development from this afternoon
into tonight across much of Missouri and Illinois.
RAP forecast soundings late this afternoon near the instability axis
in northeast Missouri have MLCAPE near 2000 j/kg, with 0-6 km shear
around 35 knots. This may support supercell development with storms
that remain discrete. However, high-resolution models suggest that
storm mode could be more favorable for multicells due to widespread
convective coverage. Although low-level lapse rates will be poor,
the instability and moderate deep-layer shear could be enough for
isolated severe wind gusts and hail.
...Southern High Plains...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across much
of the central U.S. A small pocket of moderate instability is
forecast to develop over southeast Colorado this afternoon. This
will aid convective initiation in the foothills of the southern
Rockies. During the late afternoon and early evening, storms are
expected to move east-southeastward into the lower elevations of the
northwestern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma Panhandle. The
instability and steep low to mid-level lapse rates may support an
isolated threat for severe wind gusts.
...Southeastern Arizona...
A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today across southern
Arizona. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will
develop over much of southeast Arizona by afternoon. Convection is
expected to form in the higher terrain of southwest New Mexico, with
storms moving west-southwestward across southeast Arizona from late
afternoon into the early evening. Very steep low-level lapse rates
and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will contribute to a
potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 08/05/2026
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