Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026
Valid 050100Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening in parts of southern Arizona, the southern Rockies, the
southern High Plains and the Upper Midwest.
...Southern Arizona...
The latest surface analysis shows a sufficiently moist airmass over
southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints are in the upper 50s to
around 60 F. This is contributing to moderate instability over parts
of southern Arizona, with the RAP suggesting that MLCAPE is in the
1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms have developed in the higher
terrain of southwest New Mexico. These storms will move
west-southwestward across southern Arizona this evening. In addition
to the instability, surface temperature-dewpoint spreads across this
airmass are large which is resulting in very steep low-level lapse
rates. This will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts
this evening.
...Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in the southern Rockies early
this evening. These storms will move east-southeastward across
southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico this evening,
where the RAP has SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg with moderate deep-layer
shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. The environment will
support an isolated potential for severe wind gusts and hail over
the next few hours.
...Upper Midwest...
An upper-level trough will move through the north-central U.S. this
evening. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place over the mid Missouri and mid to upper Mississippi Valleys.
An axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from northeast Kansas into
southeast Iowa, where surface dewpoints are in the 70s F. This is
contributing to moderate instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE in
the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Short-term model forecasts suggest that
scattered thunderstorms will develop near the instability axis
during the overnight period. The instability along with about 30
knots of 0-6 km shear will support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles.. 08/05/2026
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