Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible from this
afternoon into early evening over parts of the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible in parts of the central High Plains.
...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded in west-northwesterly flow,
will move through the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the shortwave
trough, a moist airmass will be in place from the Ohio Valley
southeastward to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Surface dewpoints along
this west-northwest to east-southeast corridor will be in the 70s F,
which will contribute to the development of moderate instability by
midday. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward into the
Ohio Valley, as a pre-frontal trough moves into the central
Appalachians. These two features will focus convective development
during the day. A complex of storms appears likely to form over the
higher terrain in West Virginia, and move east-southeastward into
the lower elevations of Virginia and Maryland during the mid to late
afternoon.
RAP forecast soundings from West Virginia into the Virginia in the
late afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot range. Some
directional shear is present in the low-levels and 0-3 km lapse
rates are steep approaching 7 C/km. This environment will support a
wind-damage threat with organized multicells. Isolated supercells
with severe gusts will also be possible. The threat may continue
into the early evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Further west into parts of the lower Ohio Valley, a very moist
airmass will also be in place. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will
contribute to the development of moderate instability. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along zones of low-level
convergence during the afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will
be weaker further west, the thermodynamic environment will be
sufficient for isolated severe gusts.
...Central High Plains...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move through the Intermountain West
today as flow remains westerly over much of the central U.S. As
surface temperatures warm, scattered thunderstorms will develop in
the foothills of the central Rockies. These storms will move
eastward into the lower elevations of eastern Colorado and western
Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings across the central High Plains by
late afternoon have moderate instability (MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg),
0-6 km shear near 35 knots and 700 to 500 mb lapse rates in the 7 to
7.5 C/km range. This should support a threat for large hail and
isolated severe gusts with rotating storms and organized line
segments. The threat will likely persist into the evening across
parts of the central High Plains.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 08/16/2026
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