Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026
Valid 160100Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this evening across parts of the central Plains. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur this evening into tonight across
parts of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys.
...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
eastern Colorado within west-southwesterly flow. Ahead of this
feature, a moist airmass is present across the central Plains.
Surface dewpoints in eastern Colorado and western Kansas are in the
60s F, and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Along
the western edge of moderate instability, scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing from western Nebraska southward into the Oklahoma
Panhandle. In addition to moderate instability, RAP forecast
soundings early this evening downstream from the storms near Dodge
City and Hill City and have 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with 0-3 km
lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. The steep low to mid-level lapse rates
are evident on the Dodge City 00Z sounding. This environment should
support an isolated severe threat for several more hours this
evening as the storms move across the central Plains. Severe wind
gusts and hail will be the primary threats...see MCD 1992. During
the overnight period, a convective cluster or line segment is
forecast to move east-northeastward across northern Kansas and
southern Nebraska, potentially reaching far northwest Missouri late
in the period. Isolated severe gusts will be possible with these
storms.
...Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
the Ohio Valley within west-northwesterly flow. At the surface, a
moist axis is located from central Illinois southeastward into
eastern Kentucky, along which surface dewpoints are in the 70s F.
Near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg
range. To the east and northeast of the strongest instability,
scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing ahead of the shortwave
trough in western Ohio and northern Kentucky. The Wilmington, Ohio
00Z sounding has 0-6 km shear around 30 knots with a surface
dewpoint in the mid 70s F, and precipitable water near 2.15 inches.
This moist and unstable environment should support a potential for
isolated severe wet downbursts with the stronger multicells early
this evening.
..Broyles.. 08/16/2026
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