Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS PART OF
AZ...
...SUMMARY...
A severe wind swath, with a few 75+ mph gusts is possible across
portions of the northern Plains into the Midwest tonight. A few
severe gusts may also occur over central and southern Arizona.
...South Dakota into Iowa vicinity...
A small cluster of storms near the western ND/SD border may be the
start of what is expected to be a severe MCS through the overnight
hours. These storms are developing within a corridor of strong
instability and favorable deep layer shear. The 00z ABR RAOB shows a
very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space for
initial supercells growing upscale into a bowing MCS as a low-level
jet increases tonight. This environment is characterized by an
elongated/straight hodograph, steep lapse rates and strong
instability with a layer of drier air around 700 mb atop a very
moist boundary layer. This profile suggests sufficient cold pool
generation is possible, aiding in development of a forward
propagating bowing MCS capable of severe gusts (some 75+ mph)
tonight into early Tuesday. Initial supercells also may pose a risk
for large hail up to 2.5 inches. Reference MCD 1908 for more short
term details.
...Central High Plains...
Scattered strong to severe storms will continue to pose a risk of
damaging winds and hail for a few more hours this evening,
particularly across parts of western NE. With loss of daytime
heating, this activity is expected to gradually wane in intensity.
Reference MCD 1910 for more short term information.
...AZ...
Widely scattered thunderstorms moving westward off higher terrain
will pose a risk for severe wind gusts over the next few hours.
...Northern IL into the Ohio Valley...
Convection ongoing across northern IN will persist into the evening
hours as it track east/southeast into OH. This activity may persist
through the overnight hours moving across much of the Ohio Valley
toward western PA and WV. Damaging winds will remain the primary
hazard, but isolated large hail may also occur.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Strong wind gusts will remain possible with storms along the
southern Mid-Atlantic coast until they push completely offshore over
the next hour. Otherwise, severe potential has largely diminished
along the I-95 corridor and vicinity and severe probabilities have
been trimmed and/or removed. The exception will be across parts of
the northern NY into VT/NH area where a band of strong/severe storms
is ongoing along a surface boundary. Damaging gusts may continue
with this activity for a few more hours. Reference MCD 1909 for more
details.
..Leitman.. 08/11/2026
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