Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026
Valid 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
ILLINOIS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this afternoon
and evening from northern Illinois eastward into Pennsylvania.
Severe gusts and hail will also be possible from parts of the
central and northern Plains into the Midwest, with scattered severe
storms over southern Arizona.
...PA/NY/NJ...
Multiple clusters and lines of thunderstorms are ongoing this
morning from western PA. So far, this activity has produced limited
severe wind gusts due to weak low-level lapse rates. However,
continued heating over central/eastern PA will eventually allow the
storms to be more efficient wind-producers with locally damaging
gusts expected. See MD #1894 for further details.
...OH/WV...
A secondary cluster of storms over central OH is tracking
southeastward in a moderately sheared environment. Rapid heating is
occurring to the southwest of this cluster, which should result in
intensification by mid afternoon. Storms will likely spread into
northern WV with a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
...SD/MN/IA...
A large reservoir of unstable air will reside across much of SD
today, with MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and
dewpoints in the upper 60s. A capping inversion should preclude
sustained convection until after 00z when strengthening southerly
low-level flow and warm advection will aid initiation. Supercells
capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected, with eventual
upscale organization into a bowing MCS possible through the
evening/night.
...CO/KS...
Most model guidance shows the likelihood of scattered high-based
thunderstorm development late this afternoon over northeast CO,
spreading into northwest KS and southwest NE this evening. Cloud
cover is somewhat limiting heating, but sufficient CAPE and winds
aloft may promote a period of damaging wind potential later today.
...AZ...
Another round of evening thunderstorms is expected to initiate off
the higher terrain of east-central AZ and spread westward toward the
TUS/PHX metro areas. Parameters remain conditionally favorable for
damaging winds in any sustained/organized clusters of storms that
may develop.
..Hart/Weinman.. 08/10/2026
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