Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from
the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated
severe gusts may also occur from the northern Great Basin into the
northern High Plains, from North Carolina into southern Virginia,
and over southeast Arizona.
...WI/MN/IA...
A fast-moving shortwave trough is moving eastward across ND. As
this system approaches the western Great Lakes region this
afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to form along a surface
boundary extending from southeast MN into central WI. A moist and
very unstable air mass will be present along the boundary, aiding in
the development of a few severe storms. Sufficient deep-layer shear
will promote supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. This activity
will build westward along the boundary into northern IA by early
evening. A cluster or two of this activity could congeal into
bowing structures with a continued severe wind risk this evening.
...High Plains...
The upper ridge over the Rockies has weakened today, resulting in
stronger westerly flow into parts of WY/CO/NE/KS. Scattered
high-based thunderstorms are expected to form by mid-afternoon over
the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY and spread eastward
into the Plains. Moisture will be limited near the foothills, but
weak easterly surface winds will maintain 40s dewpoints in eastern
CO, leading to convective intensification. Most CAM solutions show
thunderstorms capable of locally severe wind gusts tracking eastward
through the evening into parts of southwest NE and western KS before
dissipating after midnight.
...Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
Moderately strong westerly flow aloft, steep low-level lapse rates,
and ample mid-level moisture will result in conditions favorable for
scattered high-based thunderstorms over a relatively broad area this
afternoon and evening. Gusty/damaging winds will be possible with
the strongest storms.
...Southeast AZ...
Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to form over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ and propagate south-southwestward
through the early evening. Inverted-v profiles will promote a risk
of gusty/damaging winds in a few of the storms.
..Hart/Chalmers.. 07/08/2026
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