Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071630Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA....
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe
storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this
afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the
Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and
southeast Arizona.
...Dakotas/MN...
A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Rockies and
Plains states, with moderately strong winds aloft topping the ridge
over the Dakotas. A surface boundary will lift slightly northward
and extend from the Black Hills region into western MN by evening,
with a very unstable air mass expected to the south. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop across southeast MT/eastern WY by late
afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. These storms
will intensify as they build into the greater moisture/instability
in place across SD. Sufficient deep-layer shear and convergence near
the boundary will promote supercell storms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. If sufficient organization can occur with
these storms, there is some risk of a linear MCS tracking eastward
through the evening across northern SD/southern ND into western MN
with a risk of damaging winds.
Ongoing storms over northeast SD may also persist, along with new
development this afternoon along the boundary. These storms could
also pose a risk of damaging winds and hail.
...VA/NC...
Visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover over
northern/central VA, but mostly clear skies from southern VA into
NC. Areas of strong heating will again be at risk of strong storms
producing occasional damaging wind gusts this afternoon.
...TX/LA...
Strong afternoon thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon in
vicinity of a weak upper trough over the ArkLaTex region. Locally
damaging wind gusts are the main risk.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 07/07/2026
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