Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail
and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains
into parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Isolated
severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible
Tuesday afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into
the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, and parts of the Great
Basin.
...Synopsis...
Ahead of a shortwave trough moving from the northern Rockies into
the northern High Plains, the models indicate a lead disturbance
(possible MCV) and associated belt of enhanced mid-level flow
progressing through ND into northern MN on Tuesday. Elsewhere, a
shortwave trough will move through the Northeast, while a mid-level
low lingers over the Mid South/lower MS Valley.
At the surface, the primary feature of interest is a front that is
expected to become quasi-stationary from western SD through central
or southern MN and northern WI by afternoon. A surface low is
projected to develop along the boundary in western SD with a lee
trough trailing south from that feature into the central High
Plains.
...Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Clusters of elevated thunderstorms tied to the lead disturbance may
be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday across portions of eastern MT and western
ND, to the north of the surface front. Modest instability and some
vertical-shear enhancement may support an isolated large hail threat
through the morning, mainly in southern ND.
In the wake of the early-day storms, low-level, upslope flow will
strengthen across the northern High Plains in response to the
approach of a shortwave trough from the west. The associated
increase in low-level moisture will coincide with a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates to yield MLCAPE up to 1000-2000 J/kg from
central MT into western SD with upwards of 2000-3500 J/kg farther
east along the front in SD and MN.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to
late afternoon within the upslope regime from central into eastern
MT and along the front across SD and perhaps MN. Sufficiently strong
vertical shear is forecast from MT east along the front in SD to
support supercell storm modes with an associated risk for large hail
and damaging winds. The 00Z CAMs indicate the initial discrete
storms merging into clusters or one or more MCSs Tuesday evening
into night along a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. Severe
wind gusts will become the predominant hazard with that mode
transition.
Additional storms are possible near and west of the lee trough in
southeast WY, northeast CO, and the NE Panhandle during the
afternoon into evening. The local environment will feature a deep
and well-mixed boundary layer, which will support the potential for
a few severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail.
...Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support
scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid afternoon from
the Blue Ridge Mountains east to the lee trough and Carolina sea
breeze. Vertical shear will remain weak, which will limit the
potential for storm organization. Nonetheless, the presence of steep
low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential, leading to
the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences, especially with any
storm clusters.
...East Texas into the Sabine River Valley...
A weak vorticity lobe is forecast to pivot south through the Ozark
Plateau into the ArkLaTex on Tuesday with a preceding zone of
forcing for ascent acting on a very moist and moderately unstable
air mass. A resultant increase in storm coverage is expected through
the afternoon with some CAM signal for a loosely organized cold pool
to evolve, which will support the potential for sporadic damaging
wind gusts.
...Great Basin...
The 00Z models suggest that a weak mid-level disturbance will move
through northeast NV and northern UT Tuesday afternoon into the
evening, enhancing lift and vertical shear to some extent. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
that feature by mid to late afternoon atop a deep and well-mixed
boundary layer, which will be supportive of locally severe wind
gusts.
..Mead/Moore.. 07/07/2026
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