Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND A
SMALL PART OF LOUISIANA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this evening into tonight. Isolated damaging wind
gusts will also be possible over parts of the northern Rockies into
northern High Plains, Louisiana, and the southern Mid-Atlantic.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
Recent trends in radar data indicate the coalescing of individual
thunderstorms into a broader-scale cluster east of Fargo. The
impingement of the cold front on that convection should foster
further morphology into more of a line configuration with bowing
characteristics late this evening into tonight, which is supported
by latest convection-allowing model guidance. The 00Z ABR sounding
sampled steep lapse rates, which were largely contributing to MLCAPE
of around 3000 J/kg in the absence of a more moist boundary layer.
The steep lapse rates and resultant top-heavy CAPE profile in
conjunction with the drier low-level environment are expected to
enhance cold pool development with damaging winds becoming the
predominant severe weather hazard. Localized gusts as high as 70-75
mph are possible as the convective system advances into central MN.
Additional more isolated storm development is possible along the
western flank of the MCS in eastern SD, where more sporadic large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
...Louisiana...
Radar data indicate a cold pool attendant to a bowing storm complex
now becoming displaced downstream from the parent updrafts, which
should lead to the continued weakening of the MCS. Farther south, a
brief uptick in thunderstorm development and associated damaging
wind threat is possible over the next hour or so near and west of
Alexandria where two outflow boundaries are expected to collide.
...Northern Rockies into Central High Plains...
Evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough moving through
ID into western MT with an attending belt of stronger mid-level flow
overspreading southern MT and northwest WY, per latest objective
analysis. The glancing influence of that feature, coupled with
orographic ascent, may still yield a few storm clusters late this
evening into tonight in south-central and southeast MT and northeast
WY, where isolated severe gusts will be possible.
..Mead.. 07/07/2026
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