Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will be
possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and
northern Plains, but especially across parts of Nebraska and South
Dakota. Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur across parts of
the Southeast.
...Central and Northern Plains including Nebraska/South Dakota...
An amplifying shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery over
Wyoming this morning will continue east and then a bit southeastward
through tonight toward the middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest.
A cold front will become more southeastward-progressive later today
and tonight, intercepting a moisture-rich air mass across Kansas
into Nebraska/South Dakota.
Early day scattered precipitation/cloud cover will tend to abate
and/or shift away from the region later today, allowing for ample
insolation near a surface trough and ahead of the front.
Mid-tropospheric winds will be weak, but a few initial supercells
could occur in vicinity of south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska amidst somewhat stronger effective shear. Some severe hail
will be possible early in the developmental cycle, but damaging
winds should be an increasing and more common concern with the
expectation that storms will cluster, grow upscale, and progress
southeastward this evening, aided by an increasingly strong
southwesterly low-level jet.
Further west into parts of the High Plains, pockets of moderate
instability may develop in parts of eastern Colorado, western Kansas
and eastern Montana. Although large-scale ascent will be weak in
these areas, topographic forcing will aid convective initiation.
During the mid/late afternoon into evening, isolated to scattered
storms will move east-southeastward into the lower elevations,
including the possibility of storms spreading from southern
Saskatchewan into northeast Montana, where a somewhat more
severe-favorable environment will exist. Localized strong to severe
wind gusts and hail will be possible regionally.
...Southeast/Florida...
A very moist air mass will persist regionally to the south of a
generally west/east-oriented front. Scattered thunderstorms are
already ongoing this morning particularly across northern Florida
and nearby offshore waters, with additional storm development
expected to the north near and just south of the front where
stronger insolation/destabilization is expected. Some of the
stronger storms that develop and mature will be capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts through late afternoon/early evening.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/30/2026
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