Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...IN
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible this evening into the early overnight from parts of
northern Minnesota southwestward into the western Dakotas.
Additional severe gusts could occur in northern Florida and in parts
of the Intermountain West.
...Northern Minnesota/Dakotas/Western Nebraska...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the
northern High Plains. A sufficiently moist airmass is located ahead
of the trough from the central and western Dakotas, where surface
dewpoints are generally in the upper 50s and 60s F. Scattered strong
thunderstorms are ongoing near a gradient of moderate instability
from central North Dakota southwestward into western South Dakota.
Along this gradient, surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are
generally in the 30 to 40 degree F range, and the RAP has 0-3 km
lapse rates in the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This should support an
isolated potential for severe wind gusts early this evening. Hail
could also occur with the stronger cells. An isolated severe threat
could persist into the late evening and early overnight in parts of
northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, as the shortwave
trough moves eastward across the region.
...Northern Florida...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
along the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, an outflow boundary is
located across northern Florida, along which scattered thunderstorms
are ongoing. Surface dewpoints to the south of the outflow boundary
are mostly in the 70s F. This is contributing to moderate
instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg
range. This thermodynamic environment may support a potential for
isolated severe gusts early this evening.
...Intermountain West...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over southeastern Idaho. Scattered thunderstorms are being
supported by large-scale ascent associated with this trough. In
addition, a small pocket of instability is analyzed by the RAP over
southeast Idaho, where MLCAPE is around 1000 J/kg. The instability
combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates could support
isolated severe wind gusts early this evening.
..Broyles.. 07/30/2026
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