Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Several convective clusters are ongoing across the region this
morning, including one over western NE/northwest KS, another over
SD, and another over IA/southern MN. Evolution of these clusters and
their respective outflows will likely play a role in the location,
timing, and intensity of thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Currently the outflow from the southern MN/IA cluster arcs
from east-central IA back southwestward through extreme southwest IA
and far southeast NE before intersecting the outflow from the
western NE/northwest KS cluster (which continues into northwest KS).
Much of the guidance suggests airmass recovery occurs north of this
outflow. Precipitation and associated cloud cover are currently in
place over western/central NE, but this cluster and its cloud cover
are quickly eroding from the west, matching trends within the
guidance and suggesting that there should be sufficient time for
airmass recovery across NE.
Strong to very strong buoyancy is anticipated south of the remnant
outflow boundary, fostered by temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s
and dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s).
Thunderstorm development is forecast along this boundary, with the
initial, more cellular storms capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Strong downbursts are possible as well.
Late afternoon thunderstorm development is possible farther west
from western SD into the NE Panhandle as well, fostered by a
combination of low-level convergence and modest large-scale forcing
for ascent. Less buoyancy is forecast here versus farther east, but
it will still be sufficient for robust updrafts, particularly across
NE where moist easterly low-level flow is anticipated. Moderate
vertical shear will likely support an initial supercell mode, with
large to very large hail and damaging gusts possible. A brief
tornado is also possible.
Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is expected
towards the evening, especially as the low-level jet increases in
the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant
gusts of 75+ mph, particularly from eastern Nebraska into western
Iowa.
...Lower Great Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley into the northern
Mid-Atlantic...
A pair of convectively augmented vorticity maxima, one over IA and
the other entering southern Lower MI, are forecast to progress
eastward within the moderate westerly flow aloft extending across
the region. Very warm and moist low-levels will support airmass
destabilization ahead of these vorticity maxima, resulting in
afternoon thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will be relatively weak
but the moderately unstable and moist air mass will still support
the potential for a few strong/severe clusters capable of damaging
wind gusts.
...Western KS into OK/TX Panhandles...
Isolated supercell development will be possible near the dry line
forecast to extend from western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle. Forcing will be weak in this region, but moderate
buoyancy and vertical shear could result in a few instances of large
hail and severe wind gusts.
...TN Valley and northern GA...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow
across the region will be weak but a very moist and unstable airmass
amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for
wet downbursts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 07/03/2026
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