Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
The flow across the central US will modify today, becoming more
zonal as height rises begin across the southern Rockies. Upper-level
ridging will continue across the eastern US. A surface front will
extend across the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Upper
Great Lakes. Several clusters of thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the vicinity of this boundary. Additional scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northeast to
the Mid-Atlantic and across the Tennessee Valley and northern
Georgia.
...Northern/Central Plains...
Modest westerly flow will remain across the northern/central Plains
this afternoon, with a shortwave trough rotating through the flow
across the Dakotas into Minnesota by the evening. Scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected along and near a surface boundary
extending from the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A
reservoir of moderate to strong instability will remain amid a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initially, a few supercells
are likely, particularly near the Black Hills in South Dakota and
across the central Dakotas. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts and
aforementioned steep lapse rates will support potential for large to
very large hail. Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing
clusters is expected towards the evening, especially as forcing for
ascent increases with the shortwave and increasing low-level jet in
the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant
gusts 75+ mph, particularly across northeastern Nebraska into
western Iowa.
Additional isolated supercell development will be possible near the
surface trough and dry line from western Kansas into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Forcing will be weaker in this region, but
a few instances of large hail and severe wind will be possible.
...Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the
Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across the
Midwest into the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley in the vicinity of
residual outflow from overnight activity. Deep layer shear/flow will
be relatively weak but a moderately unstable and moist air mass will
support potential for a few clusters which produce swaths of
damaging wind.
A corridor of more favorable mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will
exist along the periphery of the ridge across the Northeast to the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts may support
one or more organized clusters with damaging wind potential into the
afternoon/early evening.
...TN Valley and northern GA...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow
across the region will be negligible but a very moist and unstable
air mass amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support
potential for wet downbursts.
..Thornton/Moore.. 07/03/2026
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