Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern Plains. Severe wind gusts will
also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern Florida,
as well as the Great Basin/northern Intermountain West.
...Southeast States...
Near the base of the extensive eastern CONUS trough, a cold front
will slowly spread southward/stall regionally, with a moist and
unstable air mass to its south. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F will
contribute to an axis of strong instability by afternoon, with
MLCAPE likely reaching 3000+ J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates.
Damaging winds will be possible with the stronger storms, which
could include the development of some semi-organized clusters into
late afternoon/early evening.
...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
An approaching disturbance and weak height falls will develop into
the region later today, interfacing with an east-southeastward
moving front and somewhat sharpening the regional lee trough ahead
of it. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s F will contribute
to moderate instability as surface temperatures diurnally warm.
Low-level convergence along the front/lee trough will aid convective
initiation, with scattered thunderstorms moving eastward
across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon and early
evening. Large hail can be expected, and the high-based storms will
be capable of severe-caliber wind gusts, especially if storms
aggregate and cluster into the evening.
Farther east, a more conditional-type threat will exist diurnally
into northern Minnesota within a very unstable environment, but it
is a bit more probable that widely scattered storms develop into the
region tonight. If so, a few severe storms capable of wind/hail
could occur.
...Great Basin/northern Intermountain West...
A northeastward-transitioning shortwave trough and speed max, along
with diurnal heating, will influence thunderstorm development across
the region, including portions of southern/eastern Idaho and nearby
portions of northeast Nevada, northern Utah and southwest Montana.
Modestly enhanced mid-level winds and sufficient buoyancy/steep
lapse rates will support the potential for a few severe storms
capable of severe-caliber wind gusts and possibly some hail.
...Coastal southern New England...
Bands of semi-organized convection will move toward the coast
through the afternoon, preceding the offshore surface low/triple
point. Some stronger storms could materialize toward the coast with
gusts given the strengthening low-level winds, but current thinking
is the primary warm sector should remain offshore and limit the
severe potential.
..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/29/2026
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