Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and possibly a tornado or
two are expected this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic
southward into the Carolinas and far northeastern Georgia. A few
severe wind gusts may also occur early this evening in parts of the
central High Plains.
...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Northeastern Georgia...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a mid-level trough extending
southward from the lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas. At the surface, a 1001 mb low is located over Maryland
with a cold front extending southwestward from the near the low into
the southern Appalachians. Moist air is present ahead of the front
with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Scattered strong to severe
storms are ongoing across this moist airmass from Delaware southward
into eastern Virginia, central North Carolina and far northeastern
Georgia.
Along this corridor, the RAP shows an axis of moderate instability,
where MLCAPE is currently estimated to be in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg
range. Along and near the instability axis, WSR-88D VWPs from
Moorehead City, North Carolina west-southwestward into far northeast
Georgia have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots and 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity around 200 m2/s2. This environment will continue to support
a potential for supercells with an isolated tornado threat. This
threat should persist for another hour or two. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings near the instability axis have precipitable water
values around 2 inches, suggesting that the more organized line
segments could produce wet downbursts capable of severe gusts.
...Central High Plains...
A mid-level ridge is currently located over the central Rockies,
according to water vapor imagery. A subtle shortwave trough appears
to be moving through the ridge across central Colorado. Ahead of
this feature, large-scale ascent is supporting a broken line of
strong to severe storms from southwest Nebraska into far eastern
Colorado. The RAP currently has an axis of strong instability
analyzed from far southern Nebraska westward into far northeast
Colorado, along which MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg
range. As the storms move eastward into the strong instability over
the couple of hours, isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible.
..Broyles.. 07/29/2026
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