Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado risk are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.
...Dakotas/northern Minnesota...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a thin stratus
shield across central into northern MN ahead of a cluster of
thunderstorms over southern Manitoba. This thunderstorm activity is
associated with a weak mid-level vorticity max embedded within an
amplifying northwest-flow pattern over the Upper Midwest. A surface
trough extends southwestward into ND from a cyclone moving east
along the south shore of Hudson Bay.
A plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread a
warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface trough, with
MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of North Dakota into
northern Minnesota by late afternoon. Forecast model soundings show
elongated hodographs thereby promoting storm organization, including
supercells and eventually a small cluster or two. Morning models
continue to indicate widely scattered (ND) to scattered storm
development (MN) later this afternoon into the evening. Large to
very large hail is possible with the supercells (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Some tornado risk will likely focus across northern MN
where lower temperature-dewpoint spreads and enlarged hodographs
become co-located for a few hours. Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential.
Some severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger
portion of northern/central Minnesota through late evening, with a
general weakening trend expected overnight due to increasing CINH
and weakening buoyancy.
Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central North Dakota within a northwesterly flow regime.
...Eastern ID into northeast NV...
A weak disturbance evident in water-vapor imagery will continue to
move northeast over northern UT into southeast ID this afternoon
along the periphery of the Four Corners upper ridge. Widely
scattered high-based storms will likely develop by late afternoon.
Forecast soundings show inverted-V profiles supporting ample
evaporative cooling with the stronger downdrafts. Isolated severe
gusts 60-70 mph are possible.
...Southern High Plains vicinity...
On the western periphery of residual early day precipitation/cloud
cover, a nearly stationary front draped from eastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon and early evening. While deep-layer
winds will be weak, strong boundary-layer heating/mixing will
support potential for localized downbursts.
...Southeast AZ...
Isolated to widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late
this afternoon and slowly propagate westward. A couple of the
stronger high-based downdrafts may yield a risk for severe gusts for
a few hours before this activity dissipates by late evening.
...Coastal Carolinas...
Near/south of a residual front, relatively strong heating of a
moisture-rich airmass will result in the development of moderate
buoyancy across the Carolina coastal plain. Scattered storm
development is expected by early/mid afternoon. A couple of
stronger water-loaded downdrafts may be capable of a localized
wind-damage risk.
..Smith/Moore.. 07/24/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TThd3n
