Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging
wind, and possibly a tornado are forecast during the afternoon and
evening across portions of North Dakota into northern Minnesota.
...Dakotas into northern MN...
Within an amplifying upper-level pattern, multiple low-amplitude
midlevel shortwave troughs are forecast to move east-southeastward
from the northern Rockies toward ND and northern MN through the
period. A surface trough will trail southwestward from a deep
surface cyclone that will move from northern MB/ON towards Hudson
Bay. A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will
overspread a warm and moist boundary layer along/east of the surface
trough, with MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg across parts of ND
into northwest MN by late afternoon. Strengthening mid/upper-level
west-northwesterly flow will result in favorable deep-layer shear,
resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for severe
storms.
Guidance generally suggests that widely scattered storms will
develop along the surface trough by late afternoon across eastern
ND. Elongated hodographs and favorable instability will initially
favor supercell development, though some clustering will be possible
with time into the evening. Large to very large hail will be the
primary initial hazard. Some tornado potential could evolve with
persistent supercells, as low-level shear gradually increases from
late afternoon into the evening. Any organized clustering could
result in localized corridors of greater severe-wind potential. Some
severe threat could persist as storms move into a larger portion of
northern/central MN through late evening, with a general weakening
trend expected late in the period due to increasing CINH and
weakening buoyancy.
Farther northwest, some guidance depicts isolated supercell
development west of the surface trough across the Canadian Prairies
during the late afternoon, which could then move into parts of
northern/central ND within a northwesterly flow regime. This
scenario is more uncertain, but 5% wind/hail probabilities have been
expanded westward in response to this potential.
...Coastal Carolinas vicinity...
Relatively strong heating of a richly moist airmass (PW above 2
inches) will result in the development of moderate buoyancy across
parts of the Coastal Carolinas and southeast GA, in the vicinity of
a surface front. Scattered storm development is expected by
early/mid afternoon. Deep-layer flow will generally be weak, but
locally damaging downbursts and outflow winds will be possible
within the warm and very moist environment.
...Southern High Plains vicinity...
A nearly stationary front draped from eastern NM into the TX/OK
Panhandles is expected to become a focus for thunderstorm
development by late afternoon or early evening. Buoyancy is forecast
to remain modest, and deep-layer flow will be weak, so organized
storm potential currently appears low. However, strong
boundary-layer heating/mixing will support potential for localized
downbursts. While magnitude and coverage of the threat currently
appear rather limited, wind probabilities may eventually be needed,
if confidence increases in more than very localized severe-wind
potential.
...Parts of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
Widely scattered high-based storm development is expected this
afternoon from parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies,
along the periphery of an amplifying upper ridge over the Four
Corners region. Buoyancy and deep-layer shear are both expected to
remain weak, but strong to locally severe gusts will be possible
within the hot and well-mixed regime. Wind probabilities may
eventually be needed, if confidence increases in more than a very
localized/transient severe-gust threat.
..Dean/Jirak.. 07/24/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TTh5Cw
