Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES....
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper
Great Lakes this evening. A couple of tornadoes are possible but
damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard,
in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Severe storms also
remain a concern across parts of the central High Plains and the
Northeast.
...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
Steadily deepening convective activity has developed across the
surface boundary in southern Minnesota into northern/western Iowa.
Much of this region has been under the influence of a band of
mid-level cloud cover this afternoon. Comparison of the 18z and 00z
observed soundings from OAX indicate inhibition has eroded. Strong
buoyancy also remains across the area amid steep lapse rates and
ample deep layer shear. A southerly low-level jet is progged to
increase through the evening which should further support convective
development. A mix of supercells and clustered multi-cell
thunderstorms is expected through the evening, given largely
boundary parallel shear. With the increase in the low-level jet, a
tornado or two will remain possible with any more discrete
supercells.
...Northeast...
A cluster of thunderstorms is advancing eastward into portions of
northwestern New York just east of Lake Ontario. Sufficient
instability remains across portions of central/southern New York,
with more rain cooled air from several rounds of showers to the
north. This cluster may pose some potential for occasional strong to
severe winds downstream through the evening given remaining warm
temperatures and moist profiles downstream.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues near the dryline
across Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The strongest deep
layer shear is located ahead of a short-wave impulse across western
Kansas, where 30-40 kts is analyzed in SPC mesoanalysis. Steep lapse
rates and deeply mixed profiles will support potential for damaging
wind and large hail with supercells through the evening.
...Southeast...
Several clusters of thunderstorms continue across portions of
Mississippi into eastern Louisiana/southern Arkansas this evening. A
few instances of strong to severe wind will continue before gradual
weakening occurs with loss of daytime heating over the next couple
of hours.
..Thornton.. 07/02/2026
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