Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND IN WESTERN MONTANA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible from
mid afternoon into early this evening across parts of the southern
Atlantic Seaboard and in western Montana.
...Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
Very moist air will be in place today from the Southeast eastward to
the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Surface dewpoints across Georgia and
South Carolina will be mostly in the 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop across much of the
region. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians and within zones of low-level convergence
across the moist airmass. As instability maximizes and low-level
lapse rates steepen this afternoon, a few severe wind gusts will be
possible with the stronger cells.
...Western Montana...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today across the
northwestern U.S. At the surface, upslope flow will be located from
the northern High Plains westward to the northern Rockies. As
surface temperatures warm today, a pocket of instability will
develop across western Montana adjacent to the higher terrain. Some
storms that form in the northern Rockies will move northeastward
toward and through this pocket of instability in the lower
elevations, where SBCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg late this
afternoon. The instability and very steep low to mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
..Broyles/Halbert.. 07/13/2026
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