Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening
across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in southern
Arizona. Severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the
western Great Lakes. A few strong gusts will also be possible in
northeast Montana, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast.
...Southern North Carolina/South Carolina/Far Eastern Georgia...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from
the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is
located over southern North Carolina. To the south of the front, a
very moist air is in place with dewpoints in the 70s F, which is
contributing to moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are
ongoing across much of this airmass from southern North Carolina
into eastern Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Wilmington, North
Carolina and Colubmia, South Carolina have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to
30 knot range. This environment may support a threat for severe wind
gusts for another hour early this evening.
...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A very moist airmass is in place from the southern Plains eastward
into the Southeast. Over much of the region, the RAP has moderate
instability, with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Numerous
thunderstorms are ongoing from north-central Texas eastward into
southern Alabama. Along this corridor, the instability combined with
steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated
severe gusts for another hour or two.
...Southern Arizona...
At the surface, a sufficiently moist airmass is in place over
southern and central Arizona. In this area, the RAP has an axis of
moderate instability analyzed with SBCAPE estimated in the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the west of the
instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward
across southern and western Arizona this evening. Large surface
temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rate will
continue to support a potential for severe wind gusts...see MCD
1609.
...Western Great Lakes...
North-northwesterly mid-level flow is located over the western Great
Lakes, where a moist airmass is present. Surface dewpoints are in
the 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate
instability from northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. Scattered
strong to severe storms are ongoing further north over southern
Ontario. One of these cells could remain intact and move southward
across Lake Superior into Upper Michigan this evening. In that case,
the instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear would
support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.
...Northern Montana...
Southwest mid-level flow is in place over the northwestern U.S. At
the surface, a cold front is located over central and northeast
Montana, where isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. Near and ahead of
the front in northeast Montana, the RAP is analyzing moderate
instability. Thunderstorms that move in and toward the stronger
instability over the next couple of hours, may produce isolated
severe wind gusts...see MCD 1610.
..Broyles.. 07/13/2026
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