Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
expected to develop today from parts of the lower Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Large hail and severe wind gusts are
also expected in the northern High Plains. Strong wind gusts and
hail may also occur in parts of the southern Plains.
...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Northeast...
An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level jet streak will
move eastward into the lower Great Lakes today. A cold front will
advance southeastward into the lower Great Lakes, with surface
dewpoints ahead of the front in the mid to upper 60s F. An axis of
moderate instability appears likely to develop well ahead of the
front by early to mid afternoon. As this happens, convective
initiation will take place near this axis of instability from
northern Indiana eastward into northern Pennsylvania and
northeastward into southern New York. Convective coverage will
gradually expand, as a broken line segment moves southeastward into
the Ohio Valley and toward the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New
England.
RAP forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis over
northern Ohio and southwestern Pennsylvania have 0-6 km shear near
45 knots, which could support supercell development. Supercells will
be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and an isolated tornado
threat. During the late afternoon, a transition to more linear
development is expected, which should result in an increased
wind-damage threat.
Further east from central Pennsylvania into southern New England,
forecast soundings at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 30 knot
range with 0-3 km lapse rates between 7.5 and 8 C/km. This
environment will support severe storm development. Although an
isolated supercell will be possible, the most likely mode will be
linear, favoring wind-damage as the primary threat. The potential
for severe gusts will be maximized from south-central Pennsylvania
northeastward into far southern New York. The line segment is
expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts by early
evening.
...Northern High Plains...
West-southwesterly mid-level flow over the northern High Plains will
become more southwesterly during the day, as an upper-level trough
moves through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low will
deepen over the northern High Plains, with a trough located
northeastward into far northeast Montana. As surface temperatures
warm today, moderate instability will develop near the surface
trough. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence, will
result in scattered convective initiation. Multiple storms are
forecast to move northeastward across the northern High Plains
during the late afternoon and early evening.
RAP forecast soundings near the surface trough in far northeast
Montana at 00Z have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear near
35 knots. Surface-temperature dewpoint spreads are large with low to
mid-level lapse rates in the 8 to 9 C/km range. This should be
favorable for high-based supercells capable of large hail and severe
wind gusts. The severe threat will likely persist into the early to
mid evening.
...Southern Plains...
A mid-level low will move across west Texas today. At the surface, a
moist airmass will be in place over the southern Plains, where
dewpoints will be from the upper 60s into the mid 70s F. This will
result in the development of moderate instability by afternoon. To
the east of the mid-level low, low-level convergence is forecast to
become maximized over parts of west-central Texas and southern
Oklahoma. As a result, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from late afternoon into the evening. The instability
combined with steep low-level lapse rates (exceeding 7 C/km) will
support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/06/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TSvYwt
