Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
this evening from parts of the central Plains into the mid Missouri
and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated wind gusts and hail will also
be possible in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley and western
Great Lakes.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
A mid-level shortwave trough is currently evident on water vapor
imagery over the north-central U.S. The southern part of the trough
extends southwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of this
feature, a moist and unstable airmass is in place from southern
Nebraska and northern Missouri northward into much of Iowa, where
surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. Along the
moist axis, the RAP currently has a pocket of strong instability
centered over the mid Missouri Valley with MLCAPE in the 3000 to
4500 J/kg range. A front, where low-level convergence is maximized,
is evident on surface analysis from northwest Iowa southwestward
into south-central Nebraska. Thunderstorms have recently developed
near the front in southeast Nebraska. These storms are expected to
steadily increase in coverage this evening as the shortwave trough
approaches.
From southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa early this evening, RAP
forecast soundings have 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This environment will support
supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the more dominant supercells...see
MCD 992. Short-term model forecasts suggest that a cluster of strong
to severe storms will organize during the evening. As this occurs,
the wind-damage threat will likely increase. If a line segment can
become intense, then wind gusts above 70 mph will be possible. The
severe threat will gradually develop eastward across southern Iowa
into northern Illinois from mid to late evening. An isolated severe
threat may persist into the early overnight period.
...Upper Mississippi Valley/Western Great Lakes...
A surface low is evident on surface analysis over northeast
Wisconsin with a cold front extending southwestward across central
and western Wisconsin. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing
along the front. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP
showing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Ahead of the front,
the Green Bay and La Crosse WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 25
to 35 knot range suggesting that deep-layer shear is strong enough
for an isolated severe threat. The more organized multicells along
the line could have potential for hail and isolated severe gusts for
a couple more hours this evening.
..Broyles.. 06/06/2026
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