Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND MID MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected to
develop late this afternoon and evening from parts of the central
Plains into the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the
upper Mississippi Valley from this afternoon into the early evening.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough and an associated jet streak will
move eastward today from the northern Plains into the upper
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeast Kansas, with a trough in place from the low northeastward
into western Iowa. Moisture advection will occur to the east of the
low across the mid Missouri Valley, where surface dewpoints will
increase into the upper 60s and lower 70s F. As surface temperatures
warm today, a pocket of strong instability will develop from
northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa.
Convective initiation will be hampered by a capping inversion in
place throughout much of the afternoon. The cap is forecast to
weaken during the late afternoon or early evening, which will allow
for convective initiation. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the stronger instability near the surface
trough. This convection will likely move east-southeastward across
eastern Nebraska and south-central Iowa during the early to mid
evening. Storms will eventually affect parts of northern Missouri
and north-central Illinois.
RAP forecast soundings in the early evening to the south of Omaha
and Des Moines have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6
km shear around 35 knots, and 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
dominant supercells. Cell coverage is expected to steadily increase
during the early to mid evening. This should result in a transition
to linear mode with a line gradually becoming organized. During this
process, the potential for wind damage is expected to increase, and
a few wind gusts could exceed 70 mph along the more intense parts of
the line. The wind-damage threat will likely develop eastward across
parts of the mid Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening,
as either the line approaches from the west or more storms initiate.
...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley today, where a moist and unstable airmass will be
in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of
the trough during the afternoon across parts of central Minnesota
and central to northern Wisconsin. These storms will move eastward
toward the Great Lakes during the late afternoon and early evening.
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range, along with 0-6 km shear of 30
to 35 knots will support an isolated severe threat. A potential for
severe wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger short
multicell line segments.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 06/05/2026
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