Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop today across parts of
the southern/central Plains, with large hail and severe/damaging
winds possible. A more focused corridor of tornado potential should
exist this afternoon/evening across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas, where a strong tornado may occur.
...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks...
Severe potential today across the southern/central Plains will be
heavily influenced by ongoing convection this morning extending from
western KS into northeast OK. These thunderstorms are largely tied
to modest warm/moist advection at low levels, evidenced by recent
VWPs across this area (KDDC/KVNX/KINX) and the 12Z observed OUN
sounding. Latest surface analysis indicates a weak surface low is
present across southeast CO, with a front extending eastward from
this low across KS. A secondary boundary/warm front was also
analyzed along/near the KS/OK border, with generally 70s surface
dewpoints and greater instability present to its south. The
thunderstorms across western KS have recently strengthened, with
evidence of a leading supercell and some attempt at clustering just
to its west with a possible/developing MCV circulation. This
activity may pose at least an isolated hail/wind threat through the
morning as it tracks eastward across southern KS. But, it may tend
to remain somewhat elevated to the north of the warm front.
Accordingly, the overall severe threat with this convection is
uncertain. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1307 for more details on
the short-term severe threat across KS.
The net effect of the morning convection may be to reinforce the
boundary across northern OK/southern KS. Most guidance continues to
suggest that a narrow corridor of moderate to strong instability
will exist this afternoon from southeast CO (to the east of the weak
surface low) east-southeastward into southern KS/northern OK.
Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated across this area
later today as a weak mid-level shortwave trough ejects eastward
over the central High Plains. With strong deep-layer shear expected,
initial supercells should pose a threat for large hail and severe
gusts. But, convective mode will probably tend to become mixed/messy
quickly, as thunderstorms interact/merge with each other. Low-level
shear is forecast to markedly increase near the surface boundary
across southern KS/northern OK through the afternoon and evening as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Elongated/curved hodographs
suggest a threat for a few tornadoes will exist, especially with any
thunderstorms that can remain at least semi-discrete. And given the
enhanced effective SRH near the boundary, a strong tornado appears
possible if a supercell mode can be maintained.
Higher-based convection should develop farther south into the
southern High Plains this afternoon, where a more deeply mixed
airmass suggests a greater threat for scattered severe/damaging
winds. But, some hail could also occur with the stronger cores. This
activity should tend to cluster and spread eastward across northwest
TX, the OK/TX Panhandles, and eventually into western OK this
evening, while continuing to pose mainly a severe wind threat before
eventually weakening.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and New York...
50-60 kt mid-level westerly flow will spread eastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley into the central Appalachians through this evening
as an upper-level trough moves eastward over the Great Lakes. A weak
surface low should also develop eastward over the lower Great Lakes
today, with a cold front advancing east-southeastward across the
Midwest/OH Valley. Surface dewpoints generally range in the 50s to
low 60s ahead of the front this morning. Coupled with poor mid lapse
rates aloft and ongoing cloudiness, instability that develops by
this afternoon may tend to remain somewhat limited. Even so, strong
deep-layer shear associated with the mid-level jet will aid in
updraft organization, with a mix of multicell clusters and possibly
some marginal supercell structures developing this afternoon
along/ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail and damaging winds
both appear possible, and a tornado or two may also occur across
parts of OH into western/central PA and western NY where slightly
stronger low-level flow and related shear should exist. Confidence
in stronger instability and a greater severe risk remains too low
for higher hail/wind probabilities with this update.
...Utah into Wyoming and Montana...
Similar to yesterday, fairly high-based showers and thunderstorms
should develop this afternoon across the eastern Great Basin. With a
well-mixed boundary layer forecast with daytime heating, the main
threat with most of this activity should be isolated severe winds
with outflow-dominant convection as it spreads from UT into WY this
afternoon and evening. Some chance for occasional hail may also
exist farther north in southeast ID, WY, and parts of MT, where
cooler temperatures aloft, stronger mid-level flow/deep-layer shear,
and pockets of greater instability should support more robust
convection.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/25/2026
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