Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241300Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UTAH AND PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered but intense severe thunderstorms should occur this
afternoon and evening across parts of the central High Plains, with
a threat for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes all possible.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Post-frontal low-level moisture will remain over the central High
Plains today. As daytime heating occurs and low-level clouds present
this morning gradually erode, 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should
develop by mid to late afternoon in a narrow corridor across
northeast CO into southeast WY. This instability will also be aided
by the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorms should
eventually develop this afternoon across much the region as strong
mid-level west-northwesterly flow associated with a shortwave trough
over the northern Plains overspreads the central Rockies/High
Plains. The highest convective coverage is anticipated from
south-central/southeast WY into northeast/east-central CO, where
buoyancy should be maximized. Deep-layer shear will be rather
strong, with values up to 50-60 kt. These conditions will support
the potential for intense supercells capable of large to very large
hail (isolated 2-4 inches in diameter possible). Notable low-level
curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two in this
region as well. Eventual upscale growth into a southeastward-moving
MCS capable of producing severe winds is probable into eastern
CO/western KS this evening, with some 75+ mph gusts possible.
Lower thunderstorm coverage is anticipated farther south into the
southern High Plains, with warmer temperatures and higher cloud
bases suggesting a predominantly outflow-dominant mode. Strong to
severe gusts will be the primary risk, although isolated hail may
also occur.
...Upper Midwest...
A belt of 40-50 kt westerly mid-level flow will overspread WI and
vicinity today as a weak shortwave trough moves across the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. Extensive cloudiness is
prevalent across WI this morning, which will delay daytime heating
to some extent. But, seasonably cool temperatures aloft will aid up
to around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak afternoon heating
along/ahead of a weak cold front. Current expectations are for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with
moderate to locally strong deep-layer shear providing support for
updraft organization. A mix of multicells and supercells should pose
a threat for severe hail and damaging winds as they spread
east-southeastward through the afternoon and evening before
eventually weakening. Enough confidence exists in this scenario
occurring to include greater severe hail probabilities and a
corresponding Slight Risk.
...Great Basin/Four Corners...
Current surface observations indicate rather dry conditions across
the Great Basin/Four Corners regions this morning. Still, greater
low/mid-level moisture is forecast to advect northeastward through
the day as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
east-northeastward from the lower CO River Valley across the Great
Basin. The boundary layer is expected to become very well mixed with
strong daytime heating that will occur this afternoon, with weak
instability present. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow will aid in
northeastward thunderstorm motions, and some potential exists for
strong/gusty outflow winds across a large area this afternoon and
early evening. Have maintained the Slight Risk for severe winds
across parts of UT with no changes, as this area still appears to
have the best overlap of low-level moisture/instability and
scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage.
...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across
northern OK/southern KS, likely aided by weak low-level warm
advection. Recent radar imagery suggests this activity may be
acquiring an MCV circulation. This feature should track
southeastward towards the ArkLaTex through the day, generally along
and north of a surface front stalled near the Red River. Eventual
re-strengthening of convection may occur, even though deep-layer
flow and related shear should remain rather modest. Isolated hail
and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores that form, but
the potential for a more organized bowing complex is uncertain.
Farther south into the lower MS Valley, additional thunderstorms may
form this afternoon ahead of the ongoing convection in northern LA
in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. While flow through the
troposphere is expected to remain fairly modest with southward
extent across this region, some loosely organized clusters could
pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they spread towards
the central Gulf Coast through the early evening.
...Florida...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
the FL Peninsula. A moist low-level airmass with surface dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s is in place along/south of a front draped
across north FL. While low/mid-level winds will remain weak today,
cool mid-level temperatures and ample daytime heating will support
the development of moderate to locally strong instability this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous pulse-type thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the interior FL Peninsula and Atlantic
Coast sea breeze, with occasional damaging winds possible given
steepened low-level lapse rates.
..Gleason/Jewell.. 06/24/2026
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