Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains today with a threat for large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across northern
Utah.
...Synopsis...
Current satellite imagery depicts upper ridging centered over
northern Mexico, covering much of the Southeast and Texas. This
imagery also shows an upper low centered near the ND/MN/Manitoba
border intersection. These features are expected to remain largely
in place throughout the day Wednesday, with a belt of moderate
mid-level flow extending from the northern/central High Plains into
mid MS Valley between these two features. Most guidance shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moving within this westerly flow
across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley. A convectively augmented
vorticity maximum is also forecast to arc through the northern
periphery of the Southwest upper ridging, moving across the western
Great Basin during the afternoon before then continuing eastward
across the central Rockies during the evening/overnight. Evolution
of these features, in addition to continued eastward/southeastward
progress of any overnight convective complexes, will result in
scattered to numerous thunderstorms from the Intermountain West to
the MS Valley. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over a
few areas within this larger region, including northern/central UT,
the Upper MS Valley, and from the central/southern High Plains into
AR/MS.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Low-level moisture will remain over the lower elevations of the
southern and central High Plains on Wednesday, combining with strong
heating and steep mid-level lapse rates to support the development
of strong buoyancy by late afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible
across the majority of the region, with the highest coverage
anticipated from south-central/southeast WY into
northeast/east-central CO, where buoyancy is maximized as well.
Deep-layer shear will be quite strong within this corridor as well,
with 0-6 km shear from 55 to 65 kt possible. These conditions
support the potential for robust supercells capable of large to very
large hail. Hail from 3" to 4" in diameter is possible. Notable
low-level curvature of the hodograph could support a tornado or two
in this region as well, although the weak winds around 700 mb could
result in slow supercell motion and potential for more storm
interactions. Eventual upscale growth into forward-propagating MCS
capable of strong to severe gusts is probable.
Lower storm coverage is anticipated farther south, with warmer
temperatures and higher cloud bases suggesting a predominantly
outflow-dominant storm mode. Strong to severe gusts will be the
primary risk, although some isolated hail is possible as well.
...Great Basin...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region during the
afternoon, as the convectively augmented vorticity maximum mentioned
in the synopsis interacts with modest mid-level moisture and
resulting buoyancy. A deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer will support
potential thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, particularly
across northern UT where higher thunderstorm coverage is
anticipated.
...Upper Midwest...
A modest surface low, attendant to the low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving across the Dakotas to the Upper MS Valley, is forecast
to shift eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. Temperatures
are forecast to warm into the 70s ahead this low, which should be
sufficient for modest buoyancy given the low 60s dewpoints. The belt
of stronger mid-level flow will also support moderate vertical shear
(i.e. around 40 of 0-6 km shear) and the potential for more
organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts.
...South-Central KS/OK/Arklatex into MS...
Evolution of the thunderstorms ongoing across eastern CO will
significantly influence the early-day severe storm potential across
the region. Current expectation is for some remnant of whatever
cluster develops to be over south-central KS/north-central OK at the
start of the period, perhaps beginning to interact with the western
extent of a zone of warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms
extending from north-central OK into southern AR/northern LA. Low
predictability limits forecast confidence, but some limited severe
potential, both within the cluster and within the more cellular
warm-air advection storms, could exist in the morning if this
scenario materializes. The downstream airmass will be very moist,
and is forecast to destabilize as temperatures climb into the low
80s. This could lead to a reintensification of the cluster and/or
new development along its outflow. Deep-layer shear will be weak,
but strong updrafts could result in enough water loading to produce
a few strong gusts as the cluster continues southeastward.
...Southern MS/AL...
Some guidance indicates the cluster currently moving across northern
LA restrengthens as it moves through southern MS and southern AL
later this morning/afternoon. Like the areas farther northwest, this
region will be weakly sheared, but a few stronger water-loaded gusts
are possible.
..Mosier/Chalmers.. 06/24/2026
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