Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening in parts
of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail will
also be possible in parts of the southern and central High Plains. A
few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia into
northern and eastern Florida.
...Northern Plains...
The upper low that has affected the western U.S. for the last
several days has lifted into Alberta, with broad 40-60 knot
southwesterly mid-level flow across much of the northern Plains. A
cold front currently extends from eastern WY into western ND, which
will provide the primary focus for thunderstorm development later
this afternoon. Forecast soundings across this area show strong
deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates, and MLCAPE values around 2500
J/kg. This suggests the potential for several supercells storms
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.
Numerous thunderstorms over western KS this morning have overturned
most of this air mass, and will likely suppress strong storms
through the evening. However, ample moisture has surged westward
into the foothills of CO where isolated strong storms may occur.
...Southeast TX...
An outflow boundary associated with convective clusters over OK has
surged southward into the Red River valley. A hot and humid air
mass over southeast TX will be supportive of re-development of
afternoon thunderstorms along this outflow boundary. Storms will
likely track southward through the early evening, posing a risk of
locally damaging wind gusts.
...Southwest TX/Southeast NM...
Southeasterly low-level winds are present this morning over much of
southwest TX and southeast NM, maintaining 50s dewpoints in the
region and encouraging thunderstorms later today over the terrain.
The storms that form will spread northeastward for a few hours,
posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.
...FL/GA...
An upper trough will track southward across the eastern states
today. A moist and moderately unstable airmass will develop over
much of FL and southern GA, with isolated afternoon thunderstorm
development expected. The strongest cells may produce
gusty/damaging winds.
..Hart/Kerr.. 06/02/2026
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