Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PART OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially a
couple of tornadoes are expected on Tuesday afternoon and evening in
parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.
...Synopsis...
The primary upper low will make little eastward progress today.
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across parts of the
western Dakotas. Mid-level winds will drop off fairly rapidly from
Colorado southward. Convective outflows will be present within the
central and southern Plains. To the east, a strong, amplified trough
will move through the Tennessee Valley into the Southeast.
...Eastern Wyoming into the Dakotas...
Moderate to strong mid-level winds will persist across the region
through the day. A surface low will develop near the WY/SD/ND border
region by late afternoon. Storms will develop either within parts of
the higher terrain in Wyoming or along a dryline/weak surface trough
feature. Additional storms are possible along a southwest-northeast
cold front in western/central North Dakota. Upper 50s to perhaps low
60s F dewpoints are expected. Effective shear values of 45-50 kts
will promote supercell structures, particularly in western South
Dakota/southwest North Dakota near the surface low. Large to
very-large hail and severe winds will be possible. A couple of
tornadoes are also possible with discrete storms near the surface
low. Should storms maintain a discrete mode into early evening, a
modest increase in the low-level jet will increase the tornado
potential.
...Central/southern High Plains...
Moisture return will occur in the wake of overnight convection. Low
to mid 50s F dewpoints into the Foothills/southern Rockies appears
plausible. Along the Front Range, mid-level winds will be weaker
than yesterday. The degree of surface heating will play a role in
storm coverage during the afternoon. At present, isolated storms
capable of marginal hail and isolated severe gusts are the most
likely scenario. Farther south, temperatures will be warmer and
dewpoints may be slightly greater as well. Despite the weaker shear,
scattered storms will develop in strong buoyancy and pose a risk of
severe wind gusts.
...Southeast Alabama/southern Georgia/Florida...
Rich surface moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will reside
south of a weak surface boundary. Mid-level flow will be at least
moderately strong with the approach of the trough. Given the
influence of outflow from the previous days convection as well as a
northerly component to the winds through the day, the northern
extent of the severe risk is uncertain. It is more probable that
stronger convection forms along the Gulf breeze front within the
Florida Panhandle and the sea breeze on the eastern coast. Coverage
in Alabama and Georgia may be rather isolated. Damaging wind gusts
are the main hazard as well as small hail. Poor mid-level lapse
rates will limit greater hail potential even with supercellular
modes possible in eastern Florida.
..Wendt/Moore.. 06/02/2026
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