Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 090100Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
expected to continue this evening into tonight across southern and
eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Isolated occurrences of large
hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, south Texas,
and the ArkLaTex across the Gulf Coast states.
...OK into north TX...
As of 0030z, three distinct clusters of severe storms (with embedded
supercell structures) are ongoing near and to the south of I-44 in
OK, with recent reports of hail up to 2.50-2.75". The 00z OUN
sounding sampled the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates supporting moderate instability with
around 50 kt of deep-layer shear. The ongoing storms are expected to
continue southeast, with a sub-set of the current activity
potentially moving into north TX by 03z. Large hail will remain the
predominant hazard, with the damaging wind threat being more
conditional on the development of an organized cold pool. For
additional, short-term guidance, see the recently issued MCD 675.
...ArkLaTex to north Florida...
As of 00z, widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across far
south GA and north FL in the vicinity of a stalled front. The air
mass to the south of the front remains moderately unstable with
estimated MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The current KJAX VWP is sampling
around 50 kt of effective bulk shear, which coupled with the
instability will remain supportive of locally strong wind gusts and
perhaps some marginally severe hail for the next couple of hours.
Elsewhere, isolated storms are ongoing across parts of the Sabine
River Valley, aided by a low-level warm advection regime, per
regional VWPs. Short-term model guidance suggests that storms will
increase in areal coverage over the next several hours in the
ArkLaTex vicinity as the region is glanced by a short-wave trough
passing to the immediate north. Gradual upscale growth into a
forward-propagating QLCS appears possible, with the system moving
into central and southern parts of LA and MS by 12z Saturday.
Initial storms are likely to be somewhat elevated. However, with
time the storms may become more progressively rooted within a
moistening boundary layer returning north through the region.
Generally weak lapse rates are expected to limit severe-weather
coverage and intensity, with isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds appearing possible.
...South TX...
A short-wave trough over southwest TX into Chihuahua, Mexico this
evening will continue east tonight with downstream height
falls/forcing for ascent progressively overspreading south TX.
Visible satellite and mosaic radar data indicate gradually
increasing convection across the high terrain of northeast Mexico,
and there is some signal in model guidance that isolated storms
could cross the Rio Grande into south TX overnight. The 00z DRT
sounding sampled a fairly strong cap centered around 1.5 km AGL,
which may initially prohibit storm development. With time, dynamic
cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated storms to move into the
region with an attendant large hail and damaging wind threat.
..Mead.. 05/09/2026
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