Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the
Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.
...Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows the northern
periphery of stratus and stratocumulus across southwest OK and a
more extensive stratus field over central and north TX. These
clouds generally coincide with surface observations and GPS PW of
richer moisture returning northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough over western KS that is forecast to move southeastward into
southeast KS and OK by early evening. Strong heating ahead of a
southeastward-moving cold front and 50s dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to
indicate initial cellular activity evolving into a band of storms
along the front and pushing south-southeast this evening. Forecast
soundings will support supercells early before coalescing cold pools
promote upscale growth into a linear cluster. Supercell development
will subsequently favor anchoring updrafts on the southwest extent
of the developing convection. Severe gusts along with some
lingering hail risk will probably continue into the late evening and
overnight but diminish in overall magnitude/coverage of severe as
this activity moves into north TX and the Arklatex.
...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. A mix of hail/wind will be possible with
the stronger thunderstorms.
..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/08/2026
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