Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026
Valid 070100Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight
across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast.
Supercells ongoing across central and southern parts of Mississippi
and Alabama into western Georgia will remain capable of all
severe-weather hazards for the next few hours. Upscale growth into
storm clusters and/or bowing line segments is expected overnight
with mainly a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk focused from
southern Mississippi into central Georgia.
...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...
Early-evening surface analysis placed a convectively augmented cold
front from northern GA through central MS into the lower Rio Grande
Valley. The air mass ahead of the front is very moist, characterized
by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s from LA into MS and AL with MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear resides across the warm
sector with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 60-70+ kt. This
parameter space has supported the development of multiple supercells
ahead of the front from southern MS into west-central AL, amidst
additional strong to severe storms. The southern MS supercells have
a history of producing tornadoes, and based on the 00z LIX sounding
and regional VWP data, are in a zone of enhanced low-level shear
with effective SRH of 300-350 m2/2. For additional information on
these storms, see MCDs 658 and 659.
Convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that the ongoing,
semi-discrete storms will gradually grow upscale into clusters
and/or bowing line segments tonight along the southeastward-moving
cold front, with the most intense storms being focused along the
low-level jet axis from southern MS through central and southern AL
into central GA. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will become
the predominant hazards with that storm-mode transition.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Visible satellite indicates multiple attempts at storm initiation
recently along the high terrain of northwest Mexico, to the
southwest of Eagle Pass, TX. Convection-allowing model data suggest
that isolated, strong to severe storms will become increasingly
possible after about 05z in the same general vicinity with that
activity potentially crossing the Rio Grande into deep South TX.
Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will
conditionally favor supercell storm modes with a risk for large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. A level 1/Marginal Risk will be
maintained due to uncertainty in storm coverage.
..Mead.. 05/07/2026
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