Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large
hail and severe winds will linger across the central and southern
Plains through the late evening hours before diminishing by early
morning. More isolated severe thunderstorms will also remain
possible across portion of north-central Montana through late
evening.
...Synopsis...
Regional radar mosaics show widely scattered convection from
northwest KS into north-central OK and across portions of western
Texas. Based on latest GOES imagery and recent RAP upper-air
analyses, modest diffluence aloft associated with the left-exit
region of a subtropical jet resides across northern OK/KS and should
continue to promote thunderstorm development across this region over
the next several hours. Further northwest across Montana, isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms continue to percolate within the
higher terrain with little forward motion owing to weak mid-level
winds. Across both regions, thunderstorms will likely persist into
the late evening hours with some threat for severe gusts and perhaps
sporadic large hail.
...Kansas/northern Oklahoma...
New convection continues to develop across northwest to
south-central KS within the left-exit region of the upper jet and
within a zone of modest isentropic ascent focused near 850 mb.
Through the evening, additional thunderstorm development appears
likely as the nocturnal low-level jet gradually strengthens.
However, regional VWPs depict diminishing mid-level flow with
northward extent across KS, and dewpoint depressions on the order of
20-30 F coupled with weak low-level winds are favoring outflow
dominant convection with transient organization. Consequently, the
potential for a prolonged or intense severe threat across any one
corridor of the region appears limited - especially heading into the
late evening hours as nocturnal cooling/stabilization becomes more
pronounced. Nonetheless, severe gusts, and perhaps very sporadic
large hail, will remain possible with this activity for the next
several hours as it spreads east/northeast. 5% hail/wind
probabilities were expanded to account for this potential through
04-06 UTC.
...Western Texas...
Thunderstorm coverage has failed to materialize as expected thus far
across much of western TX, though a few thunderstorm clusters are
noted near the Amarillo, TX area, as is percolating convection near
Fort Stockton, TX. Given the dearth of more widespread convection -
likely owing to very weak forcing for ascent and the stabilizing
influence of residual cloud cover - confidence in the severe threat
through late evening is low. However, 00 UTC RAOBs and latest RAP
mesoanalysis estimates continue to show an environment supportive of
organized convection, and recent high-res guidance hints at further
development between the I-10 and I-20 corridors through roughly 04
UTC. The Slight risk has been bifurcated to highlight these two
corridors downstream of ongoing and/or developing intense
convection.
...Montana...
Convection continues to percolated across north-central MT with MRMS
imagery showing occasional periods of intensification to severe
limits with the deeper, more robust convective cores. Weak flow
below 5 km AGL is likely contributing to the slow storm motions and
poor organization, but as hinted by recent trends, convection that
can become sufficiently deep may be influenced by stronger flow
above 5 km and pose a brief threat for large hail and severe winds.
In general, this threat should wane through the late evening hours.
..Moore.. 05/30/2026
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