Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST TEXAS
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are still expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas into northern Oklahoma. More
isolated severe thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the
central High Plains, southern Utah, and the northern Rockies.
...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. The
biggest change made to the outlook was to extend 15 percent wind and
hail probabilities (hence the Slight risk) farther east into OK.
Though speed and directional shear are not expected to be overly
abundant, some hodograph curvature and elongation, amid 2500-3000
J/kg MLCAPE will support multicells and transient supercells capable
of producing severe wind and hail (with a few stones potentially
exceeding 2 inches in diameter). Otherwise, more minor adjustments
were made to thunder and severe probabilities to account for
observations and the latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 05/29/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026/
...Southern Plains...
Southwesterly flow aloft is present today over AZ/NM, with large
scale height falls and weak ascent overspreading west TX/OK.
Low-level southeasterly flow in this region is maintaining a moist
and potentially moderately unstable air mass, with breaks in the
clouds leading to pockets of CAPE over 2000 J/kg. By late
afternoon, clusters of thunderstorms will develop from the Davis
mountains northward into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings in
this area show a deeply mixed boundary-layer suggestive of a
damaging wind and large hail potential. These storms will congeal
and move eastward into western OK during the evening, spreading into
greater low-level moisture and CAPE profiles. The risk of hail may
increase as this happens.
...Northeast CO/Northwest KS...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
Palmer Ridge to the east of Denver, and over the plains of southeast
CO. These storms will track northeastward through the early
evening, with some increase in low-level shear expected. This may
result in a supercell or two capable of large hail, damaging winds,
or perhaps a tornado.
...MT...
A consensus of 12z model guidance continues to show that scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will form over the terrain of western and
central MT. This activity will spread northward toward the Canadian
border, through a region of 1000 J/kg CAPE and a deeply mixed
boundary-layer. This would support a risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps hail in the strongest storms.
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